Are some apparent CO2 emission reductions ‘too good to be true’? In this post, I discuss how the Kaya Identity leads to what might be called the ‘diamond law’ of CO2 emissions. This ‘law’ (in fact just chemistry) allows us to check the plausibility of apparently dramatic CO2 reductions. Continue reading
I enjoyed the conference, ‘Circling the Square’ (20-22 May 2014) organised by Reiner Grundmann and colleagues from the Science,Technology and Society Priority Group at Nottingham University. Bringing together academics from the natural and social sciences (and others), the conference explored how scientific knowledge is (or should be) used for policy. Some reactions have been collated by Brigitte Nerlich on the Making Science Public blog.
There were many facets to the discussion, but here I will make just a few observations. As a former natural scientist now attempting to become a social scientist, I appreciated the refreshingly frank (and generally good-natured) exchanges on the different world views across the natural/social science divide (or continuum).
13 Feb: A further comment from Richard confirms that the Met Office projections for UK sea level rise are 5 to 7 cm between now and 2030.
This is an edited version of a comment I made on Bishop Hill on 9 Feb:
In February 2014 the Met Office and Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) published a report called “The Recent Storms and Floods in the UK”. (pdf of original version here). The report makes an interesting prediction about sea level rise by 2030 on p.21 (the same figures are also given on p.2):
Sea level along the English Channel has already risen by about 12cm in the last 100 years. With the warming we are already committed to over the next few decades, a further 11-16cm of sea level rise is likely by 2030. This equates to 23-27cm of total sea level rise since 1900. We are very confident that sea level will continue to rise over coming decades as the planet continues to warm. These numbers represent our current best estimate for the UK.
That implies that the rate of sea level rise (SLR) in the English Channel will more than double in the next 16 years to 7 to 10 mm per year (on average) from the current 3 mm per year. And assuming that the rate of SLR does not leap to the new level in the first year, a linear increase from the current rate implies a rate of about 15 mm per year by 2030.
Is there something special about the English Channel? It’s hard to reconcile this with the IPCC projections in AR5 Chapter 13.
No citations are given for this statement in an otherwise well-referenced document. I’ll update this post if I find out more.
Update: Tim Channon has plotted a graph of how this prediction compares to past SLR at Newlyn, Cornwall (the national sea level monitoring station) http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/02/10/met-office-forecasting-skill-on-show
Update 2: Richard Betts is on the case…
Richard Betts (@richardabetts) February 10, 2014
Update 3: I think Tim Channon may have nailed the problem (2030 should be 2100?). Although, this would mean that the Met Office is expecting no acceleration of SLR over a century, while the IPCC expects it to at least double by 2080-2100. We’ll see what the Met Office comes up with.
Update 4: The Met Office have ‘clarified’ their statement, which apparently relates to a 1990 baseline. See Richard Betts’ comment below. See also Tim Channon’s new post and graph:
Update 5: A few final thoughts from me in a comment below.
Its real name is Pilea peperomioides, also called the Chinese Money Plant and the Missionary Plant, but in our family it’s ‘Nicked from Norway’ as my mother-in-law brought a small plant back from a visit to Norway, about fifteen years ago. Mine is a third- or fourth-generation offshoot of that original plant and this is the first time I’ve seen one in flower (or at least, in bud).
This post is about the intriguing story of how Pilea peperomioides came to be a popular houseplant, entirely below the radar of European botanists and horticulturalists.
A massive rock fall at Porthcothan Bay, Cornwall, has changed the beach dramatically.
I’ve been documenting the changes since I first noticed a hole in the rock in 2002 – but it’s all changed now!
And now – see photo in the Cornish Guardian – and more falls since then shown on Facebook and Sky News. There are some particularly spectacular photos in the Daily Mail (scroll down to the end) and some fine ‘before and after’ photos from the BBC.
Updated April 2014 with some first-hand photos:
This is my comment in reply to a post by Dr Tamsin Edwards on her blog ‘All Models Are Wrong’ entitled Nine Lessons and Carols in Communicating Climate Uncertainty. I have submitted this comment on Tamsin’s blog.
Thanks, Tamsin, for this article. It is a pity, though, that what the IPCC said about the attribution of global warming in AR4 and AR5 is not reported correctly. Continue reading